Google Play’s Judgement Day – Does it matter?

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Google is being forced to open up its Play store in the US following a Judge’s final ruling in the Epic vs Google case.

The tech giant is appealing, of course. But taking the ruling at face value, it states:

• Google has to open up to third-party stores within Google Play.
• It needs to share all apps with other stores.
• Google can no longer enforce its payment system on the Play Store.
• The tech giant can’t incentivise developers with money or perks to launch exclusively, or even first, on the Play Store.
• The ruling will also factor in new devices – stopping Google from paying device manufacturers and carriers from pre-installing the Play Store but not third-party stores.

All of these rules will be enforced for three years – notably half of Epic’s requested time frame. The judge in the case said this should provide sufficient time for rivals to grow and “level the playing field”.

Good luck.

Apple and Google have already laid the foundations for how they’ll deal with other billing options and stores. Apple introduced the core technology fee and more recently the store services fee in the EU. Google, meanwhile, has previously set a service fee at 26% in South Korea, when pressured to open up billing.

Effectively, this makes releasing on alternative stores and using third-party payment services untenable – unless it’s through a web store that the platforms don’t take a fee from, yet.

Google is also being punished for its dealings with other companies to maintain its market share, a key part of the case that had Google branded as an illegal monopoly in Android billing and distribution. It’s curious what this could mean for its subscription service Play Pass. Can that exist as its own separate business or will it be restricted by the ruling?

It’s notable that rivals, like Epic or Xbox, can, for the next three years, offer special perks for users on their stores while Google can’t. Xbox president Sarah Bond has wasted no time announcing further plans for its mobile marketplace – posting on LinkedIn that starting in November, players will be able to play and purchase Xbox games directly from the Xbox App on Android.

As a side note, it’s strange we’re still yet to see Microsoft really push down the accelerator on its mobile plans with an announcement through official channels outside of a LinkedIn post and a fireside chat.

What now?

So what’s the impact of all this? It’s not nothing. This is great news for Epic and any company serious about making a third-party store work on mobile – though they’ll have to do it without iOS in the US for now.

However, we don’t yet know for sure how Google will implement these changes – but we do have the history of how Google has taken to dealing with alternative payment options for an indication of how it’ll react. The answer is, like Apple, it will fight tooth and nail to maintain the status quo, in whatever form it can muster.

It’s worth noting Google Play’s position in the US mobile market. It’s well known iOS generated more revenue than its counterpart – but Android’s stake in the market is significant. According to AppMagic estimates, during the first nine months of 2024, Google Play accounted for 40% of player spending in mobile games. If publishers could avoid the platform’s fees, that would ensure significant extra revenue.

Ultimately, it’s going to be incredibly difficult to shift player habits away from Google Play. Given time, if companies like Epic, Xbox and others are willing to stick with it, they could carve out some kind of share. It’s worth noting Epic’s epic investments to carve out a share on PC game sales, where it now has 300 million installs. But that investment comes while market leader Steam continues to grow.

Epic CEO Tim Sweeney said the Epic Games Store has accumulated 10 million downloads on mobile – which I assume accounts for some of its 70 million monthly active users it recently touted. But how many of those users will continue using the marketplace?

One major challenge for Google Play competitors is simply: how many stores can a consumer be bothered with? Publishers like Ubisoft and EA all tried their hands at their own stores on PC, before relenting to the inevitable – they can’t make it on their own, and users don’t want a hundred different stores and apps to install. It’s not convenient.

Is three years really enough to change a habit of a lifetime?