Is the EU set for “total capitulation” on App Store regulation?

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Apple could be set for a win against the EU’s Digital Markets Act if a Reuters report is to be believed.

Its complex new terms – which includes an initial acquisition fee, store services fee tiers and a core technology commission – are apparently likely to be approved by the European Commission. Publishers could be set to pay around 20% on fees, which still marks a climb down from the App Store’s 30% share.

The further we move away from what was once a very simple proposition, the more confusing Apple is making things. The various documents the iPhone giant released for the latest rules stretch over 26,000 words – about as long as Alice in Wonderland.

Political concerns

The new business terms were introduced after the EU slapped Apple with a €500 million ($587m) fine for breaching the DMA. It’s important to note that reports previously claimed the fine was lower than expected due to concerns about the reaction from the Trump administration, with tariffs looming large in the background. Plus the US often gets antsy when its tech darlings are threatened.

So perhaps the EU is still being influenced by a potential wider impact of enforcing the DMA’s rules, which in the long-term will surely only serve to weaken regulation in the region. Epic Games CEO Tim Sweeney said the potential decision would amount to “total capitulation”. The industry waits with baited breath on the EU’s decision.

Speaking of waiting… the UK might just take gold in the professional can-kicking Olympics. The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) just announced it is proposing that Apple and Google should be given Strategic Market Status through its own version of the DMA (yeah, it’s a Brexit thing). A decision on a provisional designation is expected in October, with any potential action for regulatory enforcement not taken until 2026.

No doubt there will be more twists and turns for Apple across the world in the months ahead, particularly with its appeal against that US court decision to crack open the App Store entirely.

In many ways though, the horse has already bolted. Stillfront, MTG and Ten Square Games have reported recent growth in their direct-to-consumer strategies, with more no doubt set to follow. Web shop sales have stepped into overdrive.

Apple keeps trying to mitigate the damage, but even regulatory wins will struggle to halt the inevitable.