AEW Redemption Preview and Predictions

This weekend AEW hits up Montreal, Canada’s Bell Centre with a lineup of 11 matches (as of posting) featuring a host of global talent with some homegrown maple products poured over for good measure.

It’s difficult to get too hyped for this show because of its placement between Forbidden Door and the All In/Out shows in August and September. Because of that I’m not expecting any earth shattering developments with match outcomes. I think if you’re expecting much more beyond the status quo then you’ll be disappointed with Redemption, at least if it plays out like I think it will.

Without any further ado, let’s jump into things. After Forbidden Door we are sitting at a record of 50-17 (50/67), with a success rate of 75%. That also accounts for relinquishing my ever-so-beloved half-point from the Royal Rumble.

The Undercard

AEW Trios Championship – The Conglomeration (Kyle O’Reilly, Roderick Strong and Orange Cassidy) vs. The Lethal Twist (Jay Lethal, Blake Christian and Lee Johnson)

The Trios championships are on the line for this Buy-In matchup. Given that Lethal Twist is a relatively new trios team on the scene I doubt we’re going to see a title change here. It wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world if a team like Lethal Twist got the belts in the near future since the makeup of a veteran and two young wrestlers just works, but I think keeping the trios belts on The Conglomeration helps give the titles an identity the division has lacked in the past. There’s no real reason to end that now when the trio of O’Reilly, Strong and Cassidy work together so well as a comedic team focused only on the titles. Coincidentally they can also dissect you, destroy your back and flat out nonchalantly disrespect you with their hands in their pockets. A time will come for the team to splinter off for other goals, but right now the Conglomeration is probably one of the better trios titles options. Winners: The Conglomeration  

“The Painmaker” Chris Jericho vs. Tommaso Ciampa

Am I the only one who has found this one odd so far? It just feels like a child-like pissing contest between two grown men arguing over who’s better and more violent than the other. If we’re being honest, statistically it’s Jericho in terms of championships, present day Ciampa and with the tiebreaker, according to Cage Match, by a margin of 9.3 to 8.63/10, it’s Jericho. There, can this be over now?

Seriously though, I’m not sure what we’re getting here with respect to a longer term payoff. I can’t imagine this goes too much longer. Additionally I’m not sure what to expect in terms of a result. On the one hand I can see Jericho picking up the win entirely because the card is in Canada. In a pure wrestling sense, Jericho probably wins for now if the feud is continuing past this weekend, with Ciampa coming out on top in the end. I think we’re getting a very physical match regardless considering how Ciampa has been presented in AEW, combined with Jericho dusting off his Painmaker persona. I suspect this doesn’t end at Redemption, so I’m going with Jericho, but I’d prefer Ciampa. Winner: Chris Jericho

AEW TBS Championship – Hikaru Shida (c) vs. Maya World

Fresh off her surprising, tournament MVP-level run in the Owen Hart Cup, Maya World is back in the spotlight a month later vying for the TBS championship. Standing in her way though is a multi-time AEW world champion and someone who is arguably on the best run of her AEW tenure. Heel Shida has injected a certain freshness into her presentation these last few months and even more so now that she is a champion again. I’ve come around on Maya, but I don’t want to see her necessarily defeat Shida so soon into her rise coupled with Shida’s reemergence in the AEW landscape. Unless there are visa-like issues with Shida like there have been in the past, I just don’t see a reasonable pathway for Maya to win here. This feels like it’s similarly molded to how the Omega-Knight match will probably play out in that Shida will show her dominance, but you will see moments where Maya excels and threatens Shida’s reign as champion. Maya World will get her time, I just don’t think it’s now. And honestly, with her popularity where it is right now, I think you can have her lose here and still parlay that into another tag team title opportunity with Hyan against Megan Bayne and Lena Kross in the near future. Winner: Shida

Double Chain Match – The Bang Bang Gang (White and Robinson) vs. The (War) Dogs (Finlay and Connors)

Although the guns are up over here in my corner of the internet, I’m guessing David Finlay and Clark Connors are taking this one. The Bang Bang Gang (BBG) have been positioned as the faces the whole feud, with White even getting a face reaction when he returned at Forbidden Door to drop Finlay and cost them the tag team titles. While their back and forth oneupsmanship since then has been fairly balanced, I’d wager with Gabriel Kidd competing in the G1 right now that we won’t see him until after he’s eliminated. Because of that I’d imagine if anyone was going to interfere in the Dogs’ favour it would be their associates in the Death Riders. There’s a bigger story to tell with this group, so I think we’ll get a brutal match violence-wise considering the chains, but in the end Finlay and Connors win. Also wouldn’t be upset if White and Robinson win. Winners: The Dogs

AEW National Championship: Mark Davis (c) vs. Andrade El Idolo

This will be Davis’ 8th defence during his nearly 80 day reign. In that time he has had some good matches against Ace Austin and Speedball Bailey, in addition to Dezmond Xavier on ROH TV. There are a couple things here I think are working against him.

Firstly, and this is circumstantial, the Callis family has too many of the men’s championships. Right now, offhand they’re only short the AEW world, continental and tag team titles. Optically it feels like the men’s division runs through them, and I’m not sure they’ve all earned that distinction. That’s especially so with Kevin Knight being in the world title challenger slot. Secondly, it’s hard to deny Andrade’s popularity right now and I think that it would be pretty daft to not strap up Andrade here. It should also be noted that Andrade doesn’t have an AEW championship win across both of his AEW tenures, so I think this is a good opportunity to capitalize on his momentum.

There is a third factor here and that’s MJF. I think MJF and Andrade are wrestling at All In, but the question I have is whether or not that match NEEDS a title on the line. I’d lean more toward no, but I also think since Ricochet lost it the title has been has lost momentum. A champion who’s gotten himself some momentum, coupled with a big feud could be a good idea. But MJF just as easily could screw Andrade over. If I’m guessing though there are a lot more positives with Andrade winning. Winner: Andrade

AEW International Championship – Kyle Fletcher (c) vs. Bandido

Redemption has a number of these type of title matches that look good on paper or screens, will probably be athletically entertaining, but where I don’t expect an outcome other than the champion retaining. Where Fletcher is concerned I think you still have a reason keep the title on him with unresolved stories in waiting focusing on his relationship with both Okada and Takeshita (who is competing in NJPW’s G1 through August 16) over the International championship. I think Bandido is due for an actual singles AEW championship, but I think it makes more sense for him to maybe dethrone Kevin Knight for the TNT title than it does for him to beat Fletcher for a championship that can still be a valuable piece in the larger feuds Fletcher is a component of. I don’t see how these two have a bad match unless it becomes over-embroiled in outside nonsense. I think Bandido’s time with a singles title in AEW beyond his ROH championship has to be nearing, I just don’t think it’s this title right now. Fletcher carrying it into All In against Okada or Takeshita — or both — is just low-hanging fruit. For what it’s worth I think they’ve done a good job in building this match in the last few weeks, including their “fight” at comic con this weekend. Winner: Kyle Fletcher

6-Way Ladder Match: #1 Contendership for the AEW International Championship: Jack Perry vs. Nick Wayne vs. El Clon vs. The Beast Mortos vs. Komander vs. Mike Bailey

We can assume this will be an earlier match, so if that’s true I think it more or less predicts the winner of the title match itself. I think you can only really reasonably use Perry, Komander, Bailey and maybe Mortos if Fletcher retains. Conversely I think Wayne and El Clon only work if Bandido wins. Since I’m going with Fletcher, I’ll assume one of the four wins here. I think if you’re just looking for another contender then Bailey wins here. If you’re looking for a potential next champion, which I’m not convinced is the case, I think Perry simply because of his tenure and recent resigning. And either of those two can simply just be the next challenger. I think Mortos or Komander works because of their stylistic similarities to Bandido, so that could be a natural jumping point for Fletcher.

Much like the title match outcome though, I still feel like if you have unresolved tension between Fletcher and Takeshita, Okada and Fletcher seems to be boiling up, then you do that triple threat for the title soon. While I think there are avenues for maybe Okada to cost Fletcher indirectly to get the belt out of the family, I think they’ve already played that card this past week. As a sidebar, I think if Nick Wayne wins and Bandido wins, then Wayne is joining the Callis family. They definitely need another egocentric fellow over there, but he fits their mold of young talent. Realistically though I come back to Perry and Bailey, and I think between them Bailey is a more dynamic match for Fletcher. Perry is a fair choice too, but I’m leaning toward Speedball. Winner: Mike Bailey

The Main Card

Will Ospreay and Jon Moxley vs. the Young Bucks

Much like the tag team title match, I think this match outcome is pretty charted. The way AEW shows are playing out, the Young Bucks and Cope ‘n Cage feels like the endgame of the champions’ title run. Unlike the title match though there are some options to how this weird pseudo-Death Rider (sorry for breaking your neck, lol) pairing against the Young Bucks can work. I think the Bucks should win, with the caveat being that the title match is taking place soon. I think that’s the critical piece of the equation. If that match is still months off past September and we start looking at WrestleDream or Full Gear as destination spots, then that opens up Ospreay and Mox to win. The problem is why would you have them win? It seems like you would only do that to dually protect Ospreay’s image going into All In and if you’re protecting Mox; the Bucks are pretty bullet proof and can lose ad nauseum and it won’t matter.

I think there are less arguments in favour of the Death Rider pairing. Conversely, in addition to the Bucks making more sense, you can pay off the Omega-Mox-Ospreay pairing this past week by having Omega come down, interfere and inadvertently cost Mox-Ospreay the match in favour of the Bucks. Or maybe Mox throws the match but makes it seem like Omega cost them to, in his phrasing, add “tension to the room.” That in turn builds the All In main event between Ospreay and Omega, and preps the Bucks for their round(s) with Copeland and Cage. While you can do Ospreay and Moxley in the winner’s circle and make it work… Winner: Young Bucks

AEW Tag Team Champion Championship – Cage and Cope (c) vs. Death Riders (Claudio Castagnoli and PAC)

I would put the chance of Claudio and PAC winning the tag team titles at 0%. This just feels like a circumstantial stopgap title defence that is interwoven into longstanding feuds between the groups dating back to last year combined with what’s going in the world title picture, and between the former Bullet Club factions. It actually kind of reminds me of a conspiracy board. The match will be what it will be and nothing more. I think with the Young Bucks probably on deck, Cope and Cage are in a holding pattern until that point. The match will be fine, it’s just hard to invest in it and the championships right now. Winners: Adam Copeland and Christian Cage

AEW World Women’s Championship: Thekla (c) vs. Willow Nightingale

With this being the last stop before All In, the true question is whether it makes more sense to a) have Thekla carry the championship into All In against Mercedes Mone, which she arguably deserves, or b) whether we want to double back to the Mone-Willow story well. I think you can make an argument for either here, but I don’t necessarily like the idea of crowning Willow as AEW champion only for her to lose it four weeks later in London. However, doubling back to Willow and Mercedes’ history gives you more to work with and you know there’s chemistry there from their earlier NJPW and AEW battles. It’s just confusing booking heading into All In. A triple threat probably wouldn’t be the most ridiculous thing in the world and it still involves all three for the London show. I have a suspicion Willow shouldn’t be written off, but I think Thekla gets one more defence in this reign of terror before dropping it at All In regardless of whether it’s a singles or triple threat match. Winner: Thekla

AEW World Championship – Kenny Omega (c) vs. Kevin Knight

The champion vs. champion main event pretty much dictates the All In main event, although I wouldn’t expect a new champion here with such a marquee main event on the horizon next month. For the last several weeks AEW has gone out of their way to highlight Kevin Knight at every opportunity, ranging from breaking the TNT title defence record to now challenging Omega for the world championship. Although it’s clear he’s valued, this is the definition of a showcase match and nothing more. We’ll see Knight excel and threaten Omega, but he will fall short of becoming a two belted champion. I think this match can help break him through to the next level, but that’s again truly the purpose of this match. It is a showcase for Knight, and whatever happens after that we’ll see. Either way, Omega retains and heads to All In. Probably match of the night to close out Redemption. Winner: Kenny Omega