AEW Going All In on Omega and Ospreay
The All In main event for AEW’s big show in London’s Wembley Stadium appears set in stone now. There are certainly more twists and turns, especially with an AEW pay-per-view between now and then alongside plenty of TV, but for now it seems as though MJF is out of the picture and Kenny Omega will be defending his newly-won AEW world title against Will Ospreay next month.
Throughout most of 2026 MJF has been the constant in AEW programming. He has carried the AEW world championship for the majority of the year, has been central to three different stories and uniquely eliminated Hangman Page from ever becoming world champion again, as well as helping crown Darby Allin and Kenny Omega in separate respective underdog and comeback stories. He has prevailed all year, and did so in typically underhanded fashion.
His loss to Omega two weeks ago signals a shift in AEW’s presentation. In one swift moment we went from a sure thing main event featuring MJF defending against Ospreay, to the “Aerial Assassin” foiling MJF’s cheating tactics en route to Omega becoming a two time champion. Ospreay filling up half the marquee was never in doubt, however as time wore on MJF’s role at All In became less clear. Although I’m not convinced he doesn’t end the year as a four time champion, for the moment AEW’s maniacal super villain is on the outside looking in.
The real question is whether or not this is the right move, and in most respects I’d argue it is. MJF can benefit from some short time away from the title; there are no shortages of opponents he can have programs with for the next several months, and while one of those stories could have been the resumption of their feud from a few years ago over the International title, I also think in the bigger picture that a proper, lengthy Ospreay-MJF feud over the AEW championship deserves more than a few weeks of build. In the short term an Omega-Ospreay match is more buzzworthy based solely on their wrestling pedigrees and the type of match they will be able to put on as headliners of the All In card.
Over the last several years Omega and Ospreay have had two matches, in addition to a PWG match they worked in 2015. This forthcoming encounter will be their fourth overall, with them splitting their IWGP U.S. title matches in 2023, while Omega won that 2015 match. If you needed any further fuel to the notion that Ospreay is probably leaving Wembley with the AEW championship, this is like an elimination game in a best-of-5 playoff series with Omega up 2-1. There are plenty of opportunities for a tiebreaker, but at the moment I think in terms of pure spectacle it’s the match you need and want for All In. It’ll be an authentically athletic NJPW-style main event match they’re both accustomed to; the longer it goes the more they will have the crowd in the palms of their hands. It’ll be short on narrative, but you don’t really need it as much here. It’s strictly a matter of one thinking they’re better than the other and aiming to prove that point emphatically.
That all being said, let’s talk about the title change and why it makes sense.
MJF is AEW’s MVP
AEW can gear up and try to leave harbour, set for an odyssey of epic proportions through the waters of 2026, but for every major beat 2026 has navigated past MJF is both the wind that AEW’s sails catch, and the oars that propel the ship on when there’s no wind to speak of. As said above, no story beat in AEW that matters happens without MJF being willing to drop the championship on TV twice. There is no Darby Allin underdog moment, and there is no redemption for Omega. Both of those matter for AEW’s past, present and future. Like Flair in his NWA heyday we know the belt will circulate back to him; it’s a “when” and not an “if.” And if we accept MJF is the villain and main antagonist of AEW, his long term sustainability depends on having a cache of credible opponents and challengers who can not only test him, but defeat him at any moment.
MJF could have certainly beaten Omega again and went on to All In and lose to Ospreay, but that’s the issue with how this has all played out. If Ospreay was always going to be there, and the champion for all intents and purposes of the argument was a lame duck, the company is better served to let Omega get one back on MJF, rekindle his feud with Ospreay, and ultimately partake together in a match with an outcome that will likely still end the same, but have an iota of uncertainty about that result.
For as charted as Ospreay heading to All In has been that accounts for something. Oftentimes wrestling still needs that suspension of disbelief. Suddenly we go from Ospreay probably, definitely beating MJF, to Omega walking into Wembley as champion where maybe he doesn’t necessarily lose. It reads as less automatic and foregone now even if it’s just the optics of it.
I also don’t think too many people who watch AEW week to week would be upset by a decent Omega run as a face champion. I think you can tell a decent story with it, and if you did that and back-burnered Ospreay, you still have that story in your back pocket. Conversely, if Ospreay wins, you can break the 2-2 deadlock at All Out, or more appropriately the NJPW-inspired WrestleDream, to give both something more tangible both beyond a short program. Either way it doesn’t need to culminate at All In.
Ospreay Winning Makes More Sense
I wouldn’t be against Omega holding the title longer, and I think how frequently he defends it over the next several weeks hints toward the ending. However, if the objective is to crown Ospreay and have him pull the sword from the stone now as opposed to later, you can start off strong with fully taking the torch from Omega to completely resolve that earlier 2023 story between them. Then after a time you’ll also have Ospreay and MJF ready to go. AEW has gone out of their way to re-establish their rivalry on past Dynamites.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Ospreay’s first reign is short, with the title inevitably heading back to MJF. Whether that means his usual schtick or someone like Callum Newman interjecting to cost Ospreay to set up a Wrestle Kingdom match, I think an Ospreay win books the rest of the year, whereas Omega’s second reign feels like it has an expiration date on it. I just think if you compare the two, you have more options with Ospreay story-wise than with Omega. Perhaps some of that is the perception of Ospreay being a shoe-in to leave All In as champion, but tonally as the weeks go by how they build the story will make the ending more clear.
MJF is the Alpha and Omega Regardless
Maxwell Jacob Friedman feels like Thanos at this point — his reigns are inevitable, and I think it’s possible 2027 begins the same way 2026 began.
Right now I think AEW has a solid amount of riches at the top of the card even without Page in the mix. Whoever the champion is after All In will have a solid list of potential challengers. That talent on its own is a boon for the company, and options that make sense and can be molded are a positive. Could MJF carry the title into Wembley? Obviously. You can make an argument he’s the most important wrestler on the roster because of what he does, how he does it, and above all seemingly, his willingness to step aside as champion when it makes sense. Again, we don’t get the short and violently sweet Darby Allin title reign without that buy-in from MJF.
Akin to that, by the time the lights go out in Wembley in August, AEW will have four months before the end of the year to chart the company’s course into 2027. So let’s say Ospreay carries it the balance of the year, probably crosses paths with Moxley (does anyone trust what’s going on right now? At all?), you have a built-in match with Okada and Kyle Fletcher, or anyone else in the Callis family, and if we’re being truthful probably MJF within the first six months of his reign should he defeat the champion at All In. And to be clear, there are easy ways to keep/get the belt off him, such as Newman or Moxley costing him to set up something between them. That probably happens one way or the other.
That’s why I’ve said there are a lot of options and more inroads with Ospreay as champion over a 3-6 month period that I’d argue Omega doesn’t have. We’ll probably see some TV defences, and we have a defence against Kevin Knight set for AEW Redemption next weekend. And then whatever happens between All In, All Out and WrestleDream, I think Ospreay is carrying it at least into December.
Regardless of how that shakes out, I think the champion is feuding with MJF as 2026 closes, and I think that makes sense because MJF has unfinished stories with both champion and challenger, in addition to dangling threads that let you link back to Kevin Knight, Andrade (who I’m guessing he’s wrestling at All In); that gives you three defences to start MJF’s next reign (whenever that happens). I also don’t think Ospreay, should he win, needs a long first reign, nor should first reigns automatically need to be lengthy.
AEW has the malleability to do what it wants with credibility right now, and that’s equal parts the wrestlers doing what they do inside the ring and out, and Tony Khan for seemingly loosening the strings on the stringent in-ring focus. That’s always going to be part of AEW’s identity, but allowing for wrestler’s characters to evolve, take risks with stories and keep other avenues open for cooking until ready, such as MJF and Darby, letting Ospreay evolve his work, or letting Andrade get over with his catchphrase and character are positives. Meanwhile, they’re looking ahead to the future by subbing out Hangman Page for someone like Kevin Knight. These are all moving pieces in and around the AEW world title picture, and the lynchpin for everything AEW has done this year — beginning and end — has been MJF.
