AEW Revolution 2026: Preview and Predictions
AEW’s Revolution has historically been one of the company’s can’t miss shows. Whether it’s the Young Bucks vs. Kenny Omega and Hangman Page, Sting’s return and retirement matches, the dog collar match between CM Punk and MJF, the latter defending the AEW title against Bryan Danielson in an Iron Man match or a certain exploding barbed wire deathmatch that was pretty good up until it went up in a tiny puff of smoke.
We’re glossing over a lot of good, bad and barely occurring, but Revolution in my opinion has been one of the better shows on the AEW calendar since its creation in 2020. While I’m not so sure that this 13 match card is going crack the top 3 or 5 AEW Revolutions of all time, there are still some good things here.
For those keeping score at home, I’m currently sitting at 3.5/8 on predictions on WWE shows for the year. So let’s see what’s ahead of us at AEW Revolution 2026, and hopefully come Monday that doesn’t implode into 3.5/21.
Cue the Foley-esque thumbs up.
AEW Revolution 2026
These shows are a little exhausting to really gauge, mostly because as we all know AEW shows tend to run long. So we’re going to focus on the marquee matches and really dive into the critical pieces of AEW storylines and matchups. For the rest here are some quick hit thoughts:
All Elite Appetizers
AEW National Championship – Blackjack Battle Royale: Who cares? This is one aspect of AEW programming that is frustrating. Understanding this is on the preshow, it’s hard to get invested into a match — even if it’s a battle royale — when you don’t know who the players are. As of Saturday only Ricochet and Tommaso Ciampa were announced. Unless there are some surprises incoming, I don’t think Ciampa deviates from his TNT title quest and Ricochet probably retains. Prediction: Ricochet (Unless Mister X from Resident Evil makes a surprise appearance… sorry, playing RE Requiem right now).
AEW TBS Championship – Willow Nightingale(c) vs. Lena Kross: Considering this is also on the pre-show I can’t see Willow dropping the championship. I think her second run as the Queen of Television lasts a little bit longer beyond Revolution. Unless they’re looking for a shocker title change to set the tone for the night, taking nothing away from Kross, I can’t see Willow losing this one. Prediction: Willow Nightingale
Boom & Doom vs. the Infantry: There’s a reason this is on the pre-show. I appreciate A.J.’s enthusiasm for the business and that even now he wants to take part. I appreciate that he brings his audience with him. However, I just can’t get into a match that gets carried by Shawn Dean and Carlie Bravo, who are both pretty good, and Q.T. Marshall. I assume Boom & Doom will win the match. Prediction: Boom & Doom
The Dogs (David Finlay, Gabe Kidd, Clark Connors) vs. Darby Allin, Orange Cassidy and Roderick Strong: AEW does these every so often when they’re introducing new characters and wrestlers. The ex-pat Bullet Club War Dogs are all new signings, save for Gabe Kidd, so this would be the opportunity to have them go over big as a unit. I think David Finlay got hamstrung in NJPW being shoehorned into Bullet Club leadership while coming off as Jay Lite. On his own merits he came into his own, and Connors and Kidd are a great pair to round out the trio. This feels like a showcase match for them, and I think they win. I’m on the fence as to whether Strong actually turns, but I think it doesn’t make a lot of sense. I assume Finlay picks up the pinfall regardless here. Prediction: The Dogs
AEW Women’s Tag Team Championship – Babes of Wrath(c) vs. Megan Bayne and Lena Kross: We have Willow and Kross pulling double duty, so that’s interesting on its own. I don’t think this is accidental, and I think AEW straps up Bayne and Kross. I think that mostly because they want to capitalize on Bayne’s momentum and I think she’s come along enough to have earned an opportunity like this. I’ve been a fan of her development since her Stardom run and she’s come a long way. In the bigger picture I can’t see Willow leaving Revolution with both belts, and I think there’s a reason this is featured on the pay-per-view over the TBS title. New tag team champions inbound. Prediction: ‘The Megasus’ Megan Bayne and Lena Kross
AEW Trios Championships – Don Callis Family (Okada & Aussie Open)(c) vs. Mistico and Jet Speed: This match highlights just how many double champions AEW has right now. For my taste it makes more sense to keep the trios straps in the Callis family for the moment, even though I think Mistico and Jet Speed are probably the better fit for the championships. And conversely, should they win, I think that opens them up to dropping the belts to the Dogs in short order. If you really want to push them in the Trios division in the short term. I think the X-Factor here is any dissension within the family, but I’m not convinced Okada and Aussie Open are dropping this match despite a valid argument they could. Prediction: Don Callis Family (Okada and Aussie Open)
Toni Storm vs. Marina Shafir: The stipulation in this match bars stablemates from ringside. Nothing against either woman but I’m not too jazzed about this one up front. It’s really going to rely on the spark of flamboyance and violence Storm has become known for in contrast to the brutality of Shafir. I think once you actually get going this is going to be a good one to slot in anywhere on the card if you need to adjust the pace. Entertainment is what I’m expecting here. Toni Storm takes it though. I don’t feel like a Shafir megapush is on the horizon yet, so a win over Storm accomplishes less. If Shafir does win though I don’t think Willow is long for the TBS title. Prediction: Toni Storm
Andrade vs. Bandido: Just based purely from in-ring work, this could be another match of the night contender. Their styles really lend to a fast-paced, physical match that I think should serve both of them well. It’s a bit of an odd match considering Bandido’s ROH title isn’t on the line, but that perhaps serves to keep him and the title visible without defending it on non-ROH shows. Because it’s a non-title match I’m leaning toward Andrade picking up the win. He’s the one with momentum, he’s fresh and has been booked strongly since his return to AEW, and because this isn’t even a title eliminator there’s absolutely no reason Andrade should lose. It might not be clean, but I think Andrade wins. Prediction (if it wasn’t clear): Andrade
Brody King vs. Swerve Strickland: Not sure where this goes. Swerve doesn’t need the victory here, and King has been getting pushed relatively well over the course of the last few months. I think this feud is intended to project King farther along with a substantial, trademark program. And I think Swerve is just the person who can be physical and violent enough to lean into King’s strengths. That being said, I think Swerve takes this one, only because I don’t think the program ends here. I feel like there’ll be a rematch at Dynasty, and if beyond that, Double or Nothing. I think it’s a good feud that has some potential, and the longer it goes the better King would be at the end of it. Prediction: Swerve
AEW Continental Championship – Jon Moxley(c) vs. Konosuke Takeshita: The transition of Takeshita back to a babyface is seemingly nearly complete. Whether that sticks through the match is anyone’s guess, but I think AEW has been angling toward a formal Takeshita-Okada double title feud for a while now. Most likely from the outset of Okada aligning with the family. I’ve also assumed this was the destination for Moxley once he won the Continental Classic and fractured the Unified title — leaving the International championship with Okada. I think it’s just a matter of time before the belts are reunified, and because of that I think Takeshita is a good bet to capture the championship from Moxley in the interest of truly beginning the feud between Okada and Takeshita. I’m not sure where Mox goes next after this if a title change does happen, but I don’t see a lot of value in continuing this with that other feud waiting in the wings. Then again, maybe Takeshita wins here and they hold off unification until the Continental Classic. Conversely Mox could win and the whole thing gets dragged out longer. Inconceivable!… Right? Prediction: Takeshita
The Main Courses
AEW Tag Team Championship – FTR(c) vs. The Young Bucks
These boys could do this dance forever, and they probably will until both teams retire. Typically when they match up and I try to figure out what the result might be, it’s easy to look at the previous results since it feels Tony Khan loves to 50-50 book them and alternate wins. That isn’t 100% entirely the case though. Since FTR debuted in AEW the two teams have been in the same match 11 times (according to Cage Match). Within those 11 matches, the AEW tag team championship has been on the line four times. Three of those instances were straight tag team matches, with the fourth being a triple threat featuring them against the Acclaimed. In those matches the Young Bucks are 3-1. If we account for the period when FTR held the ROH and AAA titles, that record improves to 3-2. If we look at it more broadly, the teams are split 5-5-1 across their tag team matches, trios matches, multi-man matches and gauntlets or battle royales. The single outlier was a battle royale won by reDRagon. I don’t think the quality of the match is in doubt, but the outcome is basically coming down to keeping their record balanced.
On that end I think FTR wins because the Bucks hold the edge in title match wins, and I think the story wrinkle of having access to Ciampa and Hathaway to cost the Bucks in no small way is likely and would help build toward a probable near-future Bucks reign. I think this comes down to keeping the debate as to which team is greater as balanced as possible until their final match to mitigate the seesaw effect of one appearing to be more dominant like what WWF did with Ric Flair and Hulk Hogan when the former jumped from WCW in the early 1990s. Their feud has actually been really well booked long term when you think about it, however the reality is that FTR has not defeated the Bucks in a straight tag team or 3-way tag match since All In in 2023. I think that streak ends here. Prediction: FTR
AEW Women’s World Championship – Two out of Three Falls: Thekla(c) vs. Kris Statlander
Thekla has been on my radar since her early Stardom days when she was still teaming with WWE’s Giulia while both were still in Stardom as members of the stable Donna Del Mondo. I’ve always liked her stuff and she’s really broken out in the last two years or so from the time Giulia disbanded DDM and Thekla went out on her own and really established herself as a heel. That all built to her “firing” from Stardom as she became more volatile and dovetailed into her current AEW run. She has the confidence of a champion combined with the charisma and ability to back it up. I’m trying not to use “aura” here, the way she presents as — for lack of better phrasing — an unapologetic, gender-neutral asshole is a great pairing with the more straight-laced, hardworking Kris Statlander. Stat worked her way up to the top the long way and earned the championships she was allowed to run with, and she established her own presence over time as a mainstay AEW babyface. While their styles are dissimilar, they’re a good pairing from a character perspective and they’re physical in their own way. The wrinkle here is the stipulation.
Were it a single fall I’d say Thekla retains. I think there’s more you can do with her against other challengers, and at only 31 days her reign has lasted just long enough to validate the decision but has not staled or soured yet. I think if that was the objective — to purely establish her place in the AEW hierarchy — then that mission is complete. The question is what is the totality of her objective with this reign? With a 2/3 falls stipulation it’s one of two things. If AEW is satisfied with her, she’s established now and they can put the belt back on Statlander. They can even reinforce the dynamic regardless of who wins simply by following through and going to a third fall. It keeps them both strong. The issue is if Thekla wins it’s a feud-ender. It Stat wins, you still have the opportunity to continue the feud into the summer as we get into shows like Dynasty, Double or Nothing, All In and All Out, and somewhere in there is Forbidden Door. It becomes a question of who should carry the title into those shows. The extra component of the puzzle is that Mercedes Mone has been dropping her championships. I don’t think her return is imminent as she still has five championships to drop, but I think the eventuality is that she will be contesting the AEW women’s title before the end of the year, and All Out/All In seem like good bets. That’s presumably six months from now.
In the meantime I think the conversation has to be who is the best person to hold it, and I think for the sake of not devaluing the top of the card, you keep it on Thekla for now. I feel like they could go a little longer, and I think Thekla has made good enough of an impression that having Stat take it back does no harm, but I think there’s room here to expand what they’re both capable of over the next two months. Prediction: Thekla… (Statlander winning can’t be taken off the table, but I think the shortness of the reign plays a factor in Thekla retaining at least for now.)
AEW Men’s World Championship – Texas Death Match: MJF(c) vs. Hangman Page
Saving this for the end because I don’t have a clue, and that’s probably by design to get people to tune in. Your knee-jerk presupposition is that this isn’t a Cody Rhodes situation, which is why they’ve invoked it in promos and were this otherwise a straight match I’d say MJF was obviously going to win. The fact that it’s been made into a Texas Death Match — Page’s specialty — invokes the opposite reaction from me. Page should win that. However, if you think back to MJF’s first reign he defended the title against Bryan Danielson in an Iron Man Match. Danielson argued MJF couldn’t handle the deep waters of the 60 minute time limit.
The idea was that longer matches were Danielson’s specialty, and MJF beat him at it. I think that invocation and parallel is also by design. This is creating two competing plot threads and one of them needs to give. Hangman shouldn’t lose because he’s still part of the company’s future. They can certainly go through with it to keep them a part for the foreseeable future, but my concern is how you double back on it. In that regard I like it because it gives Hangman a condition he needs to fight against since the chase is so intrinsic to his character, and it allows Max to — in Page’s view — drag AEW down a path he doesn’t approve of. This is accomplished if you have Max win in any way, and frankly an MJF title run makes more sense right now and I think there’s more you can do with MJF than Page at the moment. I’m just not sure where you take Page if you re-crown him as AEW champion, and that’s where I think the stipulation gets traction because it invokes the same vile toward MJF that we gave him for the Rhodes outcome, removes his biggest threat from contention and extends his reign into Forbidden Door season most likely. Never mind there’s still dangling plot threads from months back between MJF, Kenny Omega, Andrade and a few others to resolve.
If we’re being honest, as much as I and everyone who cares rags on AEW for their titles, Page can be figured into any of those pictures. It just matters what the long game is here. Because in all of this we have three realistic scenarios. First, MJF wins and removes Page from contention. He then moves on to any number of other challengers. Page walllows, both at the bar and in the mid-card until they work around the stipulation. Second, Page wins and maybe holds it short term only to drop it back to MJF just to avoid the stipulation. I just really don’t like it here because I think unless you have the exit strategy to use the backdoor to get out of it — whatever that might be — it’s a stupid move. I also don’t necessarily like MJF dropping the title so quickly after 72 days, so then we come back to MJF winning, moving on, and tough luck for the Hangman. The third option can literally be anything, but much like I criticized WWE for with the Elimination Chamber and the fallout of it, I think you can do something extremely convoluted here to satisfy the conditions to keep everyone in play. But it’s just that — convoluted and stupid and I don’t even like the idea of it. Somehow a no-contest in Texas Death? It’s simply the product of trying to figure out what cards they’re trying to play.
To be clear, I’m not writing this off, but I also don’t think it happens because it requires something huge like a major debut, or something genuinely from left field. To me the only way Page winning works is if he drops it back to MJF at either Dynasty or Double or Nothing, because I think MJF is the better person to hold the championship in 2026. I think that satisfies my issues with the booking possibilities, but I honestly think MJF is taking this one. As far as long term considerations go with Page, I think one way you maybe get out of it is to — very much on the nose — set a match either at this year’s Double or Nothing or the 2027 edition where in exchange for a final title match maybe they have Page bet his career. Double or nothing. For all these reasons it’s the most compelling match on the card, mostly because I don’t think anyone can accurately guess what’s going to happen not only here, but long term. Sooooo… Prediction: MJF, and then Hangman hits the bar.
What are your thoughts? Especially about this blossoming nonsense around the AEW title. I guess we’ll otherwise see how the show goes and what comes out of it as we head into the spring, the fall, winter and into early 2027 for the rebranded AEW Convolution.
