Analysts weigh in on future “smash hit” Nintendo Switch 2, a $7-8bn opportunity for games content in next two years
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The full unveiling of the Nintendo Switch 2 yesterday has games industry analysts speculating about how successful the Japanese giant’s next generation may be.
Piers Harding-Rolls, head of games research at Ampere Analysis, claimed on LinkedIn that the console represents a $7 billion to $8bn opportunity for games content over the next two years alone. A further $1bn to $2bn could be added to that depending on how Nintendo handles in-game monetisation and DLC.
Switching up
Following in the footsteps of the console titan that is the Switch – with its 150 million units sales to date outselling the Wii by 1.5 times and the Wii U more than 10 times over – the main question this time around is whether Nintendo can maintain its renewed stronghold in the industry.
Harding-Rolls expects the Switch 2 to have an even stronger launch than the original, with a “marginally higher pace” predicted to land Switch 2 sales at 13m by the end of this year.
If accurate, this would be achieved in just over six months, with the Switch 2 scheduled to launch on June 5th, 2025.
He noted, however, that Nintendo should be “competing for time and money” after the Switch 2’s launch – ahead of whatever hardware comes next for PlayStation and Xbox – suggesting that the Switch 2’s improved capabilities will bring it into closer competition against the other console brands.
High prices and the push for digital
Games analyst Rhys Elliot also took to LinkedIn to share initial thoughts after the Switch 2 Direct. He believes the new console will “pop off” with all signs pointing towards its future “smash hit” status.
While the $449.99 (£395.99 in the UK) selling price is higher than many analysts expected, Elliot suggested this will still be affordable for the mass market.
He also noted the increased prices for physical Switch 2 games over digital, despite 49% of Switch software sales having been physical over the last nine months of 2024.
This isn’t so much fans moving away from physical then, as a push from Nintendo to move away from physical media. Elliot highlighted that the Japanese giant doesn’t benefit from physical resales on the second-hand market, whereas “a digital-only market means more revenue and price control for Nintendo”.
As for the Switch 2 games themselves, the latest Direct fully unveiled Mario Kart World, Donkey Kong Bananza, Kirby Air Riders, Hyrule Warriors: Age of Imprisonment and more.
