Double-digit games industry growth labelled “a fantasy” as revenue forecast to hit $237bn in 2025

Stay Informed

Get Industry News In Your Inbox…

Sign Up Today

Double-digit games industry growth “is a fantasy” in the modern landscape, according to Midia Research’s Global Games Forecast 2025 to 2031 report.

The research and analysis firm has projected a 4.6% increase in sales year-over-year  to $236.9 billion this year.

If reached, this figure would marginally outpace the International Monetary Fund’s projected 4.2% global inflation rate for 2025.

The total number of global gamers has also been projected to rise by 3.7% to 3.27bn this year. Most of this increase is expected on mobile, though many newcomers “will spend little on games”.

Mobile software reigns supreme

Midia Research’s report claimed that the games market is now maturing so its earnings this year will remain “essentially flat”.

Nintendo and Take-Two were named as the major exceptions with the Switch 2 and Grand Theft Auto 6 expected later in 2025. Capcom’s Monster Hunter Wilds and Ubisoft’s Assassin’s Creed Shadows were also named as exemptions to the flat year.

At the same time, the report predicted that GTA 6’s success will have a negative impact on other developers and their games.

2025’s projected $236.9bn industry-wide revenue figure comprises earnings from hardware, software and subscriptions.

Software sales are forecast to rise by 4.4% Y/Y, accounting for 86%, or $203.2bn, of the games industry’s earnings this year.

Mobile is anticipated to generate $110.9bn, 55%, of industry revenue, with in-game spending set to “continue to dominate” software earnings.

Meanwhile, hardware is predicted to return to growth as a result of the Switch 2, with the market up by a potential 8.4% in 2025 after its 19.9% decline in 2024.

The report also forecasted subscription-based revenue growth of 11% Y/Y, up from $11.8bn in 2024 to $13.1bn in 2025. This growth is expected to slow down towards 2031, with Xbox Game Pass leaving its growth phase while PlayStation and Nintendo have already declined in subscriptions.

The advantage of emerging markets

Midia Research noted that Asia Pacific has “more gamers than the rest of the world combined” at over 1.5bn, compared to 352 million in Europe, 334m in LATAM and 266m in North America.

Looking forward, the company advised developers to optimise games for lower-end devices in emerging markets, focusing on mobile and riding the “portable wave”.

“The games market is mature, and double-digit growth is a fantasy. It’s not ‘survive till 25’ anymore – it’s ‘stick till 26’ with tempered expectations,” said Midia Research games industry analyst Rhys Elliot.

“As we dive into the dynamics shaping the global games market, it’s clear that the industry is navigating a transformative – and let’s be honest – scary era. While overall growth is slow and steady, several key trends are reshaping the landscape.”