Forbidden Door 2024: Preview and Predictions

If you’ve followed either incarnation of this column over the last few years, you’ll know one thing to be true:

I love crossovers.

It ultimately doesn’t matter if it’s a door, a portal, or a tear in the multiversal fabric of the space-time continuum bringing DC and Marvel characters together in a Smash Bros.-like melee that can only be fixed by Doctor Who — take a wrestler from group A, put them in a match with a wrestler from group B and I’m good. It’s what made the initial AEW crossovers with other companies fun, what has made Forbidden Door a success, and what makes potential WWE partnerships with TNA, NOAH, Marigold and other CyberFight companies so interesting.

Forbidden Door 2024

The lineup for the 2024 edition of the crossover event of the summer features 14 matches in all between the preshow and the PPV. The one thing I would argue following last year is the feeling of staleness in the concept of mostly featuring AEW and NJPW wrestlers, which the inclusion of CMLL and Stardom grapplers certainly helps alleviate a little bit with over 40 wrestlers taking part this weekend.

Kris Statlander and Momo Watanabe vs. Willow Nightingale and Tam Nakano

The first bout of the show features the continuation of the Statlander and Nightingale feud from the last several weeks. It’s good that they’re continuing something relatively long term in the women’s division that doesn’t necessarily orbit one of the titles, which has been a company pitfall for some time. In this match we have Stat teaming with 24-year-old Momo Watanabe, who if you’ve not seen before plays a pretty decent heel in the Stardom scene as a member of Oedo Tai. Even more she’s just very good in the ring. I wouldn’t expect much from this match other than being a vehicle to continue Stat and Willow’s feud, and in that I’d expect Willow to take the pin over Watanabe who I think will also be able to showcase herself. I don’t see Stat-Momo winning, and I don’t see Tam Nakano taking a pinfall here. Prediction: Willow Nightingale and Tam Nakano

Mariah May vs. Saraya

What is cohesion in the women’s division doing on an AEW show? Is this right?

Thankfully, this has been one of the positive byproducts of having Jennifer Pepperman on the creative team. Feuds feel less wayward now, less dependent on the championships, and are thread between shows much better than in the past. This one also follows in the same vein as the first match on the card.

Fresh off their tag team match on Dynamite, Saraya and Mariah May square off in a singles match that continues as an offshoot program from the world women’s title feud featuring Toni Storm and Mina Shirakawa. This one isn’t going to tear the house down, but it is going to be a worthwhile watch. I’d expect your typically physical Saraya match with flashes of offence from May who still has so much to show that the North American audience hasn’t seen yet. May has a high ceiling, but in this match I’d expect Saraya to come out on top either with the help of Harley Cameron or Anna Jay, or one of Shirakawa and Storm costing her the match to lead into their title match later in the night. Prediction: Saraya

LIJ (Hiromu Takahashi, Yota Tsuji and Titan) vs. Lucha Bros. and Mistico

Los Ingobnernables de Japon members square off against Penta, Fenix and Mistico in what I think is only going to be describable as a high-speed, high-flying matchup with some of the best juniors and luchadors in the world, while Tsuji smugly parades around and leans into being kind of a knob. Both teams have a perpetual heavyweight in Tsuji and Penta that can work a quick enough style to keep up with their faster partners. If you’ve seen any combination of these six wrestle you know what to expect. The action will be quick, Penta and Tsuji will probably get in each other’s faces and the winner won’t matter because the match will be good. But if we had to pick, I don’t think either CMLL wrestler takes the pin, and either is possible but I’d lean more toward the Lucha Bros picking up the pinfall over Takahashi. Could equally see Tsuji pinning Fenix though. Prediction: Lucha Bros and Mistico (probably?) 

Fatal 4 Way Tag: O’Reilly & Ishii vs. House of Black vs. Kidd & Strong vs. Private Party

Freshly added to the card Saturday, this is definitely a showcase match. I think the wrestler to watch for here is Gabriel Kidd, who if you’ve not seen before, should probably be the actual leader of the Bullet Club in NJPW. Great heel wrestler, great character… also subscribes to the Three Is: Intensity, Insanity and Intimidation. He’s really come into his own in the last year after years on NJPW Strong and in the company’s dojo under Shibata. As for the match, there are plenty of great matchups here, such as O’Reilly with Black and Kidd, or Ishii and Brody King. This should be a good, fun match. I think House of Black should win, but wouldn’t be surprised if Kidd and Strong take the victory. Prediction: House of Black

TNT Championship – Ladder Match: Takeshita vs. Mark Briscoe vs. Jack Perry vs. Dante Martin vs. Lio Rush vs. El Phantasmo

This one feels a little less up in the air than the trios match from the preshow. That being said I think we can rule out Dante Martin and Mark Briscoe. I don’t see AEW strapping up Martin for the first time amid this field, and I don’t think Briscoe needs another title; I think he’s probably just here to do something transcendentally crazy. I love ELP, but unless his contract is up with NJPW and he’s coming in to join Bullet Club Gold, I don’t see him winning either. It’s possible, just unlikely. Although Lio Rush is reportedly back in AEW, I feel like it’s more of the same there. I think the two most likely are Perry and Takeshita. I would argue Perry’s new heel character doesn’t need a championship right now, and Takeshita is long overdue for championship success to match his push with Don Callis. Perry is still possible, just a number two option in my eyes. Prediction: Takeshita

AEW World Women’s Championship – “Timeless” Toni Storm vs. Mina Shirakawa

It’s pushing inarguable at this point that Toni Storm is the best, most decorated women’s champion in AEW history. Despite being 70-odd days shy of Britt Baker’s reign and far short of Hikaru Shida’s mark of 372 days, neither had presented themselves in the same way Storm has, nor had they kept their characters evolving as Storm has. That’s all coupled with tweaking her workrate to match her gimmick, which is also a pretty novel idea. As part of her run though, she adopted former Goddess of Stardom tag team champion Mariah May as an “understudy.” And in that time May has adopted many of Storm’s old gimmicks either to “be” her, or to conspire against her to potentially one day beat her outright long term. Prior to her arrival she and Mina Shirakawa teamed together and won Stardom’s tag team titles, putting May very much in the middle of this title feud. For her part in the feud, Shirakawa is definitely someone that will show up and perform far beyond what you’d expect of her and her presentation. Shirakawa is very, very, very good and deserved far more than her 34-day Wonder of Stardom championship reign. Storm and Mina should put on a very entertaining match, but as for the winner, without really being able to guess how May is going to factor into the end, I don’t see Mina taking the title here. With her still being based in Japan, it doesn’t make much sense booking-wise. And further, narrative-wise, Storm losing at this point in a crossover show doesn’t seem likely. Should be good, albeit predictable. Prediction: Toni Storm

The Learning Tree (Jericho, Big Bill and Jeff Cobb) vs. Samoa Joe, Shibata and Hook

I have trouble really getting into this, partially because Jericho leaning into people wanting him to go away is edging toward pure cringe at this point. That being said, you have to respect Big Bill for the work he’s been putting in since arriving in AEW. It’s fantastic how he’s turned his life and career around and he should be applauded for it. For his part, Jeff Cobb is a fantastic worker for NJPW whom we haven’t seen nearly enough of during the AEW-NJPW partnership. Pitting those three against Joe, Shibata and Hook is the making of a good match that might edge more toward the entertainment side of things. That Jericho is lingering shouldn’t take away from the work the other five are going to do. I think the Learning Tree needs the win more and would expect as much. It is possible that Jericho could eat a pin to protect the other five, but I feel like it’s less likely. Prediction: The Learning Tree

MJF vs. Hechicero

Spinning off his feud with Rush, MJF returns to PPV with an encounter against Hechicero. Among his other matches since his return, it feels like MJF is having fun for the moment just having matches with fresh faces. It’s probably the wisest move to keep him away from the AEW world title picture for the immediate future to help reestablish himself in the AEW hierarchy. Admittedly not too familiar with Hechicero outside of his AEW appearances, from what we have seen I think we’ll get a good match with a styles clash that in part is what makes events like these interesting. That being said, while I’m sure Hechicero will overperform well in this featured showcase, there’s no way MJF loses this match. His encounter with Daniel Garcia and the dangling carrot of Will Ospreay lean me more toward a definite MJF win.

He’ll probably turn his mask around and kick him in the nuts or something. Prediction: MJF

Zack Sabre Jr. vs. Orange Cassidy

This one is tough to call. Given ZSJ lost last year on this show, in addition to feeling like he’s being set up for a lengthy run in the G1 Climax in the coming months, it wouldn’t be shocking for ZSJ to eek out a win in classic Zack fashion. I think OC is at a point where he doesn’t need to win a match like this, and while ZSJ doesn’t need to win this way, it wouldn’t be a shock for Trent Berretta and Statlander to cost OC the match. For the match itself, I think we’ll see Cassidy’s wrestling shine through and complement Sabre’s technical prowess, sprinkled with some solid OC trolling before the end either by textbook-y weird ZSJ rollup or submission. I feel like Zack has more to gain here, and that the booking brass with NJPW would push as much for it. Prediction: Zack Sabre Jr.

IWGP World Championship – Jon Moxley vs. Tetsuya Naito

I might have the lowest expectations here. As much as I respect Mox and appreciate him as IWGP champion, I have a hard time seeing him carry the title through G1 season unless he’s spending extended time in Japan through the back end of the summer. It’s even less likely since he’s not scheduled to be part of the G1 itself. In terms of the match, Mox will do what he does in-ring and I expect mostly brawling and submission grappling from him to work around Naito’s physical shortcomings at this point. Naito can still go in spurts, and he does still show flashes of what endeared him to many. I would agree that from a NJPW perspective it makes the most sense for him and the title to be in Japan leading into Wrestle Kingdom in January. Depending on what they have worked out contractually, I wouldn’t expect Mox to retain and for Naito to get one final run on top before dropping the belt to the G1 winner. Prediction: Naito (Naito, Naito)

TBS/NJPW Strong Double Title Match – Mercedes Mone vs. Stephanie Vaquer

Mone and Vaquer had a great match last year in the Strong Women’s Title tournament that was eventually won by Willow Nightingale, who later dropped the title to Giulia last summer. Their semi-final match was my first exposure to Vaquer, and since then she’s been a must watch wrestler for me. Currently holding multiple titles, she’s notably currently the NJPW Strong and CMLL World Women’s Champion and has been making a name for herself the last several years against any and all, notably securing the Strong title from Giulia earlier this year. Not to be outdone, since her return Mone has been gradually returning to form and is hitting her stride heading into this unifier match. What needs to be appreciated here is how the match has been promoted with Mone and Vaquer showing up in the other’s home promotions to rile up the other. I’m not sure if this is going to be match of the night, but it’s going to be one of the best on the card with potential to be one of the more memorable matches. I think Vaquer doesn’t walk away with the TBS title, coupled with the likelihood that NJPW might want to finally put the belt on Mone as she was reportedly intended to win from the outset if not for her injury. While I think we should also entertain the possibility of a time limit draw, I feel like it’s marginally more likely for Mone to walk out as double champion for AEW and New Japan. Prediction: Mercedes Mone

The Elite (Okada and the Young Bucks) vs. The Acclaimed and Hiroshi Tanahashi

In another trios affair on the card, you have the revived Elite against the Acclaimed and the “Ace” of NJPW Hiroshi Tanahashi. I’m not expecting much from them, and I feel like this is more of a vehicle to further the Bucks-Acclaimed feud leading into All In/All Out. I think this is more of a character-centric match up playing into their feuds and shared histories, but regardless I think it will serve its purposes to further their angles as this is hardly the end for them opposite each other. I think we could easily see the Acclaimed and Tanahashi win, but I would expect Okada to rain on their parade, most likely getting another pin over Tanahashi. Prediction: The Elite

Bryan Danielson vs. Shingo Takagi

Match of the night contender.

Someone will probably have burst blood vessels on their chest. They will also probably hit each other very, very hard in what can only be described as Dragon on Dragon violence. I think while Swerve and Ospreay have certain expectations on their main event, if you’re sleeping on these two you’d be very wrong. Danielson and Takagi are two elite performers who might very well steal the show. I think Danielson wins and advances to the next round in the Owen. It’s hard to bet against Danielson right now, and I’m looking forward to the next round matchup with PAC. Prediction: Bryan Danielson

AEW World Championship – Swerve Strickland vs. Will Ospreay

The main event showcase puts AEW International Champion Will Ospreay in his first PPV main event opposite reigning AEW World Champion Swerve Strickland. The two have crossed each other before on the indies, but both are far removed from that early point in their careers.

Swerve and Ospreay have become two of the top wrestlers in the world, with Ospreay taking home almost every personal accolade under the sun en route to owning the most Meltzer five-star matches of all time (for what that’s worth). Swerve, for his part, has lived up to his potential since arriving in AEW and has demonstrated in slow burn fashion why he is one of the brightest performers in wrestling today strictly through his character work coupled with an unparalleled in-ring IQ to rival it. Pit that against what we know Ospreay brings to the table, and it’s a near lock that the creativity these two are going to give us will steal the show unless Mone, Vaquer, Danielson and Takagi do something spectacular.

This match is the measuring stick for the card. I expect the most of these two, because that’s what we’ve come to expect in their work. With what they’re capable of, what will stand above those expectations are the moments we don’t expect; that’s the potential magic of this match and will be what makes it memorable.

I fully expect Swerve to retain here. It’s far too early to take the title off him and I feel like there is plenty of more for Swerve to do as champion throughout 2024. Conversely, it seems like only a matter of time before Ospreay leaves Don Callis, and this might be the beginning of that departure. Prediction: Swerve Strickland

Agree? Disagree? Comment down below, but regardless, have fun tomorrow.