Fortnite returns, what now for the mobile market?

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After typical Apple shenanigans, and a threatening letter from a US judge asking why it thinks it has the legal authority to ignore an injunction, Fortnite is back on the US App Store after nearly five years in the cold. For now at least.

It’s a big win for Epic Games CEO Tim Sweeney and, consequently, the entire mobile apps industry. Publishers are now free to link out to their own alternative payment systems and they’ve wasted little time in doing so. 

It’s worth noting that Apple is still appealing so there could be more twists and turns to come. We asked legal firm Futura Digital for their thoughts on the recent enforcement of an injunction against Apple and the team claimed it was unlikely Apple could turn things around from here.

As it turns out, defying the courts does not end well. Just ask Apple VP of finance Alex Roman, who is accused of lying under oath.

Still, even in the face of “anticompetitive” actions, is it really up to the courts to decide it’s okay for Apple to lose billions of dollars from its money-making App Store machine? Hilariously, Tim Cook once said during the case he believed the App Store was profitable. “I have a feel, if you will.” Me too, Tim. Me too.

According to Appfigures, last year Apple generated an estimated $28 billion in fees from developers, with $10bn from the US alone.

Xbox has expressed its concern about Apple’s previous actions and what the future holds. In an amicus brief supporting Epic’s case, it blamed Apple for the failure to launch its much-delayed Xbox mobile game marketplace – though how far along it actually is with its store is questionable given the lack of public information. Microsoft is worried that if the rules change again, its store wouldn’t be viable. 

It’s worth pointing to Facebook Instant Games’ crisis back in 2018, when the company tried to take a 30% cut on top of Google’s, leaving developers with a 49% share of IAPs. The model was not sustainable and swiftly reversed. These kinds of businesses are potentially now more viable.

New landscape

While we wait for the appeals process and learn whether multi-trillion dollar company Apple has actually been running a huge loss-making business all these years, in the meantime, the mobile market will dramatically change.

In an amicus brief supporting Epic Games’ legal battle, Spotify said that according to internal data, enabling linkouts to its own payment option has led to a significant increase in iOS users upgrading to a premium subscription over a two week period. Meanwhile, Android conversions had remained “relatively constant” during that timeframe.

“This strongly suggests that the increase is due to Apple finally complying with the Injunction thanks to the 2025 Order,” it said.

Publishers have already successfully been generating revenue off store, where they can take approximately 95% of sales, with DTC companies typically taking a 5% cut as opposed to Apple’s 30%. Apple can’t try to lay claim to off-store payments in the US now, either.

In Playtika’s Q1 financials, the publisher said it’s already making over 25% of sales from its DTC platform. All eyes will be on Q2.

Platforms like Xsolla, Appcharge, Stash, Aghanim and others are clearly some of the main direct beneficiaries of the collapse of the App Store’s walled garden. We spoke to them about this here.

Xsolla president David Stelzer told PocketGamer.biz that despite the change, he thinks there will be some “slow movement” as publishers work out how Apple reacts and the expense of driving a DTC strategy. For now, at least, he doesn’t expect all sales to go off store, but some companies could start targeting 50% of revenue from their own web shops.

RevenueCat ran a test comparing IAP and web link conversions. In early testing from 5,600 participants, it found that pushing users to the web can lead to “significant dropoff” in initial conversions compared to IAPs. It should be noted it’s only early days for the experiment, but it could spell an opportunity for Apple to retain revenue.

Market intelligence impact

Changing the rules of the App Store doesn’t just impact the revenue publishers make, though of course that’s what makes the headlines. Market intelligence firms like Sensor Tower and AppMagic now face the challenge of generating accurate estimates for mobile app revenue and downloads.

App Store rankings at a country level can form a key part of how they generate estimates. If publishers begin taking half of their revenue away from Apple Pay, it becomes a lot more difficult to generate even directional data on an app’s performance.

The consequence is it could potentially become more difficult to correctly identify market leaders, how successful the top performing apps actually are, and even overall regional and global-level estimates.

While Sensor Tower did not provide any comment, AppMagic admitted the ruling will impact data accuracy.

“We do expect an increasing share of revenue to shift toward alternative payment systems fairly quickly,” read a statement provided to PocketGamer.biz.

“With the opportunity window wide open, developers are moving fast to drive early conversions outside Apple’s ecosystem – not only to capture higher margins, but also to normalise the flow. This way, if Apple’s appeal leads to policy changes, players will already be accustomed to using alternative payment channels.

“This will impact the accuracy of our revenue estimates, indeed. However, we’ve been actively developing off-store revenue intelligence and an ad revenue estimation tool for some time now. We anticipate these tools will be ready by Q3 2025, though some time will be needed to validate their accuracy.”

Wider effects

When it comes to user acquisition, while the ruling doesn’t directly change anything about Apple’s App Tracking Transparency policy that shook the very foundations of the mobile market, it could still have an impact on UA campaign investments and what genres are viable on mobile.

“By allowing external payment links, it gives back the developers’ revenue, improving profit margins and enabling more flexibility in monetisation and user acquisition,” former Scopely China GM and Hat-Trick Capital games MD Wenfeng Yang told PocketGamer.biz.

“This benefits not just developers, but the entire value chain. Ad platforms gain as developers can afford longer ROI windows. 

“Third-party payment providers like Xsolla and Stripe are well-positioned to grow. Tools for attribution, CRM, and subscription management – such as AppsFlyer, will see increased demand. Even legal and compliance firms stand to gain as payment flows diversify.

“It’s not the end of platform control, but it signals a shift toward a more open and balanced mobile economy.”

No regrets

If Apple fails in its appeals and is ultimately forced to open up the App Store for good, it could embolden regulators around the world to take similar action.

The European Union reportedly doled out a lesser fine of €500 million ($570m) for violating the Digital Markets Act, through fear of retaliation from the Trump administration. It still found anti-steering rules were a breach of the regulations, however.

If the US is penalising one of its own tech darlings, perhaps other countries won’t be as worried about the consequences.

The mobile apps market could be changed forever. Last year Epic CEO Tim Sweeney told PocketGamer.biz that, after years of legal battles, he had no regrets about his war against the platform holders.

With Fortnite’s grand return after five years, Epic can finally claim a win.