Mobile Mavens: What will a US TikTok ban mean for the games industry?

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After years of debates, a divest-or-ban law from Congress, and lots of legal wrangling, popular app TikTok faces a ban in the US.

The Supreme Court has rejected its appeal, with the company now forced to sell the app in the US or face removal. The deadline for TikTok to do this is January 19th.

There’s plenty of speculation on how long an actual ban will take, whether TikTok will remove the app itself, and if the new Trump administration will take lengths to reverse the ban. It’s a story to watch closer over the next week.

We brought together the marketing experts on our Mobile Mavens panel to offer their opinions on the news and what the potential impact on the games industry might be.

For those who spend significantly with TikTok – and there are plenty – Monday next week could be a bad day in the office. This won’t be a simple case of moving budget around to other platforms; TikTok is a very specific user base that many treat very differently to other platforms. 

For those who don’t spend much with TikTok right now, I can foresee a knock-on effect where attempts to move those budgets result in fluctuations across other channels.

If this all goes ahead, and the US government moves to enforce the ban, next week is going to be a very interesting one in the world of mobile UA.

Keeping it simple, game developers will be impacted from two ends: organic traffic and paid traffic. 

Instead of focusing on the root causes of the issue or predicting its resolutions – topics better addressed by experts and beyond our control – I will focus on how game developers and publishers can leverage this moment. 

Organic traffic:

• Play it smart with your audience. They are losing their go-to entertainment source and won’t be picking up books instead. They will jump into other socials. Find out which ones and get there early and seize the blue ocean growth opportunity. Psst, it’s not Instagram or X. Think newcomers like RedNote, BlueSky, Lapse, etc.
• Ride the momentum wave! 

  • TikTok-related memes to spark engagement:
    “no TikTok? Let’s make Youtube Shorts great again.”
  • Push notifications:
    “Bored without TikTok? Cry no more, [live event] is coming to [your game] on [date, time].”

• Create organic content (on TikTok) talking about it now! You have 48 hours!

  • Give instructions on next steps: where will your TikTok community live after the ban? Discord, Telegram, YouTube Shorts? Invite them there ASAP.
  • Launch official gifts or benefits for your TikTok audience: “TikTok friends, we will miss you! Until we are back, here’s [gift]. Redeem by [how] on [game]!”

Paid traffic:

• Negotiate with other ad networks to shift your UA budget. 
  “Hey [ad network] I have $x previously allocated for TikTok. With that off the table, what could we achieve if we shifted x% of this budget to you?”
• TikTok as a concept for paid campaigns in other channels:
  “Missing TikTok? We got you: play [your game] and watch [in-game content] instead!”
• Explore untapped channels:
  Users are already searching for “TikTok alternative”. What are the top 10 apps popping up? Check their advertising solutions and start running before your competitors do!

Cutting off the head of a hydra that still has nine more. That’s one way to characterise the ban on TikTok (likely including Lemon8 and CapCut, which also fall under ByteDance).

The irony is that the Chinese government has already collected a massive amount of data, and one might argue that TikTok is no more of a threat than the countless other platforms we use that leak our data constantly (remember Cambridge Analytica?).

Setting aside the broader questions – such as what an actual ban on a player like this in the US would signal to other publishers and the precedent it would set – let’s take a closer look at its impact on the games industry.

The first significant issue is that “China” has invested in a wide range of gaming companies, primarily through Tencent, whose portfolio includes giants like Riot, Supercell, Epic Games, and Voodoo, as well as through NetEase (Bungie and many more).

Secondly, the biggest advertisers on TikTok are games publishers, and that’s no coincidence – 50% of daily TikTok users consume gaming-related content.

I think this whole situation is so rushed that the business-oriented administration of the incoming President Trump will opt for a rational decision to revoke or at least pause the ban.

The consequences could be significant, but the core issue, the Chinese government’s access to American user data, will remain unresolved.

The Supreme Court’s decision to reject TikTok’s appeal will have a significant impact on the games industry, particularly for hypercasual and simple puzzle games.

TikTok has been one of the most effective channels for promoting this genre due to its vertical orientation and the seamless user experience it provides. Hypercasual games often mirror the “effects games”, engaging nature of TikTok content, making the transition from scrolling to gameplay almost invisible for users. 

Additionally, this decision will disrupt strategies for gaming projects that heavily relied on influencer marketing.

TikTok’s creators have been instrumental in driving awareness and downloads for various games. Losing access to this platform will force the industry to rethink its approach to influencer partnerships and explore alternative platforms, which might not reproduce TikTok’s unique dynamics and reach.

I predict that the potential ban of TikTok in the US will ripple far beyond the social space, creating broader implications for the games industry.

This kind of regulatory action surfaces how geopolitical factors can abruptly impact both the platforms themselves and the studio ecosystems they support.

Developers are both cognisant and proactive, and likely to begin protecting their games by migrating off providers that are owned by or housed within the regions that pose the same risks for platforms based in Western countries.

Conversations like these are already being brought to us and rapidly increasing in number.

Call me a cynic, but I can’t really see this ban sticking around for long – if at all. The stage is set for Trump to come in, reverse it, and claim a quick political win, and I think we’ll continue very much ‘as-you-were’.

It could end up a win for game studios, too. TikTok will probably end up with even more users in the US, and as such, a broader pool of potential players for game advertisers to tap into.

There is a high probability of some form of a disruption for US users starting Sunday.

As it is a politically unpopular decision, there is a high chance of a deal that would allow the app to come back in some form when the new US administration enters its office in the short-to-mid term.

In any case it will definitely negatively impact the mobile gaming ecosystem and make it harder for mobile game companies to effectively reach its players in one of the world’s biggest markets.