Games industry predictions for 2025 part three: Rewarded UA, the year of AI, and price pressure on Western devs

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It’s the new year, so that means it’s the perfect time for our Mobile Mavens — a collection of games industry experts — to give their thoughts on the year ahead. We asked:

What are your predictions for the games industry in 2025?

You can read part one of our predictions series here, and part two here.

Discover more about the hottest games industry trends of the year at Pocket Gamer Connects London 2025 on January 20th to 21st.

Generative AI in game development: 2025 predictions

AI-generated games won’t take over

Despite rapid advances in AI technology, Large Language Models (LLMs) remain far from creating complete games autonomously.

Current demonstrations primarily showcase pattern recognition and adaptation rather than true innovation, typically limited to simple games like Flappy Birds, Tetris, or Snake — games with countless existing implementations that LLMs have encountered in training.

The video revolution

As video generation reaches practical quality levels through breakthroughs like Open AI’s SORA and Hunyuan video, its impact on game development becomes clearer. The technology’s immediate application will likely focus on game advertising, enabling rapid iteration of promotional content and concept testing for games still in development.

3D assets: The next frontier

While image generation has achieved remarkable quality with models like Flux and Stable Diffusion 3.5, the industry’s next challenge lies in 3D asset generation. Early developments, particularly from CSM AI, suggest 2025 will see 3D generation reach commercial viability. Solving the consistency challenge

A critical milestone for game development will be achieving consistent character and style generation across multiple images. This capability, essential for both storyboarding and asset creation, finally appears within reach thanks to innovations like Flux Redux, Luma Photon, and other recent research works.

Industry-wide integration

The adoption of generative AI in game development has become inevitable. As remaining skepticism fades, these tools will become standard across all aspects of development — from design and concept art to asset generation and Coding.

LLMs: Plateauing but practical

While LLM capabilities may be approaching a plateau, their current functionality already offers significant value. The focus will shift from breakthrough capabilities to optimising existing features and improving implementation in development workflows.

Indie developers empowered

Generative AI is democratising game development, providing independent developers with tools that allow the creation of games with minimal resources. This will lead to a surge in innovative and experimental games from smaller teams.

In 2025, I anticipate AI-driven game development. Tools powered by AI will continue to transform workflows, enabling faster, more innovative creation processes.

Hybrid monetisation models will continue to expand on the mobile games market. Subscriptions will complement free-to-play systems, offering new value propositions for players.

We will also see a development of a seamless cross-platform ecosystem where games will become increasingly accessible across devices, breaking down barriers for players.

Making predictions is never easy, but I believe that games with relaxing and low-pressure gameplay will continue to hold users’ attention. At the same time, more intricate and addictive projects, like our Ludus, have the potential to attract and retain a broad audience. In my view, such games will keep dominating the market.

That said, as I’ve mentioned before, creating games is becoming increasingly challenging with each passing year. People have less free time, and we need to offer them experiences that are short yet captivating. This is why every successful game is, in its own way, a small miracle!

2025 will be a year of consolidation and innovation. GenAI will evolve from being a tool to becoming a true differentiator, reshaping creativity and decision-making.

We’ll also see an increased focus on professionalising operations and driving efficiency to protect profitability and fuel growth in a maturing market.

Mobile game distribution will continue to change. Google and Apple are being forced to open up at a rapid pace particularly in the UK, US and Japan. Pressure on them will increase dramatically in 2025, especially from the government level.

As AI develops, it can make games and the games industry more personalised. Production times will shorten.

In our direct experience, conversations, and observations from our co-development work with partners as well as original in-house development, we believe that the games industry will start to turn a corner in 2025 and experience growth in the coming years.

While there will be continued downward price pressure on Western developers, which studios need to be prepared to address, we also believe that there will be renewed interest from publishers in funding both original and licensed IPs as well as extensions to existing franchises.

Developers with proven track records, the ability to be agile, and an expanded global footprint that supports high-quality, timely production will be in a strong position going into 2025 and 2026.

Hard times for small studios and indies, good times for big publishers. More consolidation in what will essentially be a buyers market. 

Rewarded UA will continue to grow, but I’m expecting to see consolidation there, in a very similar fashion.

I’d also love to see the rewarded space evolve from focusing on UA to doing more advanced rewards-based engagement metrics— we already do a lot of that at ZBD, but so far it has been easier for publishers to see the value in rewarded models when tied to UA. This will begin to change.

Carriers and alternate stores will take the lead in mobile app distribution 

The app store ecosystem is set to shift away from an Apple and Google duopoly to an open landscape as mobile carriers regain the power to connect consumers with apps.

Emerging regulatory changes, such as bans that prevent Google from incentivising app store preloads, will level the playing field by allowing carriers and device manufacturers to preload their own apps and platforms on new devices.

This renewed autonomy positions carriers as critical players in alternative app distribution, enabling organic growth for alternative app stores. As a result, carriers will offer developers better revenue opportunities beyond what Apple and Google provide, and present consumers with a more diverse app selection.

By embracing this strategic advantage, carriers are poised to reclaim their role as app providers and drive change in the evolving app store environment.

Diverse app stores will reshape mobile distribution by prioritising developers and consumers

The new, open app store economy will prioritise the needs of developers and users, shifting away from the current model that only serves Apple and Google.

In this new distribution model, the app store ecosystem will see a competitive, decentralised landscape where developers have more control over revenue and consumers gain access to a wider variety of apps curated and tailored to their needs.

With growing influence of third-party app stores, and as major players like Epic Games and Microsoft push for inclusivity in distribution, the app outlook is set to expand globally and mirror the thriving alternative stores seen in Asia.

This shift will enable mobile app distribution to be more inclusive, innovative, and consumer-focused, and the global app environment will evolve into a dynamic marketplace that prioritises innovation and user needs.